HARRISBURG — Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by four points in Pennsylvania, a new Spotlight PA poll of likely voters in the critical swing state shows.
The vice president won 50% support among those surveyed, while the former president secured 46%. The two other presidential candidates who will appear on Pennsylvania’s Nov. 5 ballot — Jill Stein of the Green Party and Libertarian Chase Oliver — polled at 1% and less than 1%, respectively.
Among unaffiliated and third-party voters — a growing bloc in Pennsylvania — Harris secured 47% compared to Trump’s 42%.
The poll was conducted by the MassINC Polling Group between Sept. 12 and 18 following Harris and Trump’s first, and likely only, debate.
Harris’ edge is within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 4%. But the fact that many post-debate polls show Harris with a modest lead makes it more likely she is ahead, said Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group.
Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out in late July following a debate that intensified public calls for him to exit the race. Since then, Harris has made several visits to the commonwealth, where she has highlighted a pitch to end degree requirements for some federal jobs and Trump’s role in appointing U.S. Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade.
Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by just over 44,000 votes, contributing to his surprise presidential victory. He then lost here to Biden four years later by about twice as many ballots.
He’s made the economy the centerpiece of his campaign, focusing on the Biden administration’s record on inflation and specifically mentioning Harris' tie-breaking vote for the American Rescue Plan Act.
The Spotlight PA poll found that the economy is one of the top issues on voters’ minds.
Nearly 70% of those polled identified jobs, wages, and the economy as an issue of top importance. When asked which candidate knows how to manage the economy, Trump emerged with 48% backing, to Harris’ 41%.
Koczela said that finding — that more voters think Trump is stronger on the economy — helps explain why the race is as close as it is even though the Republican polled weakly on other issues.
Nearly 50% of those polled said Harris is a person of strong moral character, for example, while just 30% said the same of Trump. Similarly, 38% of respondents said Trump is mentally sharp, while 52% said the same of Harris.
Sixty percent of respondents said the future of democracy is also a key issue. Trump has falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen from him, and he has been indicted for his role in a campaign to overturn the results.
The Spotlight PA poll also shows Democrat Bob Casey leading in a critical U.S. Senate race, with 49% support among respondents to Republican Dave McCormick’s 42%. Six percent of respondents said they either don’t know who to back or are undecided.
Koczela stressed that a poll can only measure what’s happening at the current moment — not what’s going to happen in the future.
He pointed to a letter then-FBI Director James Comey sent to Congress about Hillary Clinton’s private email server just days before the November 2016 election. At least one expert believes the letter “was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.”
“Voters can’t anticipate how they will react to future events,” he said.
Read more results from the Spotlight PA poll.
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